Polycentria

Governing Reality · a research program run by Polycentria

Who governs the conditions under which people and intelligent systems construct reality and affect one another?

That's the question behind Governing Reality. Polycentria studies it through , the encounters where one party can change another's information, options, authority, standing or environment. Every claim on this page shows its state. None of them is marked as a finding.

Dotted terms, record IDs and Note plates open more detail when you point at, focus or tap them.

Read the claims

At a glance · counted from the master, 12 October 2026

4
flagship studies
15
portfolio scenarios
55
claims, none marked a finding
827
open research questions
17
defined terms
9
90-day workstreams, once funded
36 of 58
workbook tabs public
Launch Decisions LD-01, LD-32 · Program Summary · Program Architecture

Who we are

Polycentria runs Governing Reality through an existing C-corporation. Tiffany Peil is its founder.

Polycentricity is a term from economic, political and structural governance. It describes many interacting centers of power and influence, with that power distributed among them. We think it could eventually apply to policy and governance in relations between people and AI.

We want to build this with the public and for the public, so that it represents many points of view. Our view is that the AI industry isn't currently motivated by safety, responsibility, or reducing risk and harm, and that its incentives are commercial. We also think the question is less about intelligence and cognition than about discernment, and that what those words mean is still open.

I'm a multidisciplinary, divergently brained thinker and doer. I try to stay existentially aware, and nervous-system regulated or at least grounded.

Tiffany Peil, founder, on how she works

What the coalition is for

Distributed research and implementation capacity: coders, counter-readers, engineers, researchers, participant access and replication partners. Joining isn't agreement with the thesis. Participation requires evidence discipline and disagreement rights.

Program Architecture · Coalition · In formation

How authority works here

Authorship, founding status or coining a term doesn't confer interpretive authority. Participation depends on research practice, not agreement with a political identity or a house conclusion.

Research Governance ,

Program Architecture · 90-Day Builds

Roadmap

Every project runs through the same sequence. No personal case, podcast episode, coined term or prototype counts as proof at any step.

  1. 01Case
  2. 02Evidence
  3. 03Independent coding
  4. 04Rival explanation
  5. 05Hypothesis
  6. 06Operationalization
  7. 07Test
  8. 08Intervention
  9. 09Follow-up

90-day build plan, once funded

This is the plan as of 12 October 2026. It starts when funding arrives, and its pace depends on funding and capacity. Each workstream has a stop or simplify criterion, and a negative result is a stated output.

1 of 9Swipe, scroll sideways or use the arrow keys
1 of 9Start

Codebook reliability

Day 0 to 30
freeze v0.1; assemble 60-case candidate pool; coder manual; recruit coders
Day 31 to 60
training set + blind pilot; compute initial reliability/confusion
Day 61 to 90
revise weak codes; rerun held-out cases; publish v0.2 or retirement log
Artifact
reliability report + v0.2 codebook
Success
core codes α target ≥.80 or clear revision pathway
Stop or simplify
persistent <.667 after two rounds → merge/retire code
If it fails
identifies which vocabulary should be removed before wider claims
Depends on
case sourcing + coders
2 of 9Start

Relational Character Eval

Day 0 to 30
define 8–10 behavior modules; collect 100 traceable cases; build harness
Day 31 to 60
run 3–5 model families/versions; blind adjudication; reliability
Day 61 to 90
release benchmark subset + cross-model report; select 1–2 human-experiment conditions
Artifact
eval suite + first model comparison
Success
reliable scoring + meaningful model/version discrimination
Stop or simplify
scores mostly reflect wording/verbosity or raters can't agree → simplify
If it fails
shows which 'character' dimensions are measurable and which aren't
Depends on
codebook + eval engineering
3 of 9Start

Spec → Behavior Audit

Day 0 to 30
select public specs; clause schema; 50 operationalized clauses
Day 31 to 60
generate/adjudicate adversarial cases; first cross-model run
Day 61 to 90
publish traceable divergence report and regression harness
Artifact
spec-behavior audit prototype
Success
high traceability clause→test→result; adjudication reliability
Stop or simplify
most clauses can't be operationalized without imposing external interpretation → narrow scope
If it fails
clarifies what developer accountability can and can't mean
Depends on
public specs + evaluator panel
4 of 9Start

Macrostrategy Benchmark

Day 0 to 30
define 20–30 tasks; expert rubric; recruit multidisciplinary scorers
Day 31 to 60
baseline models + human expert disagreement maps; calibrate scoring
Day 61 to 90
held-out tasks; cross-model comparison; publish benchmark v0.1
Artifact
benchmark + expert-scored baseline
Success
scoring reliable enough to compare systems; tasks discriminate
Stop or simplify
results correlate mainly with length/style or expert reliability too low → redesign
If it fails
reveals which strategic-reasoning dimensions are tractable
Depends on
expert recruitment
5 of 9Start

Metacognitive Scaffold

Day 0 to 30
implement machine-readable scaffold; select macrostrategy tasks
Day 31 to 60
A/B baseline vs scaffold; ablations; cost/latency measurement
Day 61 to 90
held-out replication on second model family; publish gains/failures
Artifact
open scaffold + ablation report
Success
reliable quality/calibration gain after verbosity/cost controls
Stop or simplify
no robust gain or huge overhead → remove components/stop
If it fails
negative result prevents ritualized scaffolding
Depends on
macro benchmark
6 of 9Start

Negotiation Facilitator

Day 0 to 30
build simulator + private/red-line schema; 20 synthetic tasks
Day 31 to 60
baseline/facilitator pilot; adversarial leakage and coercion tests
Day 61 to 90
small human low-stakes pilot; publish tradeoff table
Artifact
bounded facilitator prototype
Success
better joint outcome without higher leakage/coercion
Stop or simplify
agreement gains depend on pressure, leakage, or erased asymmetry → stop
If it fails
identifies when facilitation is inappropriate
Depends on
scenario design + ethics review
7 of 9Start

AI Proxy

Day 0 to 30
authority schema; sandbox tools; preference/constraint representation
Day 31 to 60
run scope/revocation/delegation benchmark; UI for escalation
Day 61 to 90
40-person oversight crossover if technical benchmark succeeds
Artifact
bounded proxy demo + benchmark
Success
near-zero unauthorized irreversible action + usable escalation
Stop or simplify
preference invention/scope creep remains common → don't deploy with real actions
If it fails
maps hard limits of delegated representation
Depends on
sandbox + authority baseline
8 of 9Start

Field→Eval Pipeline

Day 0 to 30
case-intake/consent schema; first 20 candidate cases
Day 31 to 60
independent coding + counter-reading; convert reliable cases to eval items
Day 61 to 90
measure conversion yield/item discrimination; release anonymized sample
Artifact
case→eval methodology + sample repository
Success
reproducible conversion with privacy and independent agreement
Stop or simplify
items require private context or author interpretation to make sense → don't scale
If it fails
proves field-research role or shows it should remain publication-only
Depends on
codebook + field interviews
9 of 9Phase 2

Gender / Platform

Day 0 to 30
final adult protocol; content taxonomy; data-governance plan; recruitment screen
Day 31 to 60
soft-launch donation pipeline and/or small feed feasibility pilot
Day 61 to 90
decide whether full RCT is feasible; preregister primary outcomes if yes
Artifact
feasibility report + validated taxonomy + pilot dataset
Success
usable exports/recruitment + reliable content coding
Stop or simplify
platform data quality/recruitment bias makes inference weak → narrow to one platform or pause
If it fails
prevents overclaiming around the most politically salient domain
Depends on
ethics/data pipeline
Program Architecture

Program architecture

Governing Reality is the research program. Polycentria is the technical and institutional counter-design. The other components are layers of the program, not separate organizations. Open a row for its outputs, evidence role and limits.

Governing RealityWho governs the conditions under which people and intelligent systems construct reality and affect one another?Current independent research program; coalition/institute structure in formation
Function
Canonical research program and institutional frame.
Outputs
Research agenda; methods; empirical studies; public artifacts; governance rules
Evidence role
Owns the cross-program thesis and methods.
Boundary
Do not describe an institute as established until independent governance, participants, and funding exist.
PolycentriaHow should authority, provenance, disagreement, delegation, refusal, and consequential state transitions be represented and governed?Research/prototype stage
Function
Technical and institutional counter-design.
Outputs
Agent evaluations; authority/provenance interfaces; decision-lineage artifacts; prototypes
Evidence role
Tests technical mechanisms only where they add measurable value beyond existing standards.
Boundary
Technical architecture cannot establish moral legitimacy; do not claim novelty before standards comparison.
The TableCan people clarify disagreement, update, negotiate, and coordinate without forced consensus?Proposed / pilot design
Function
Structured disagreement and coordination environment.
Outputs
Convenings; negotiation studies; deliberation pilots
Evidence role
Real coordination testbed and source of counter-readings.
Boundary
Not covert persuasion; non-convergence is a valid outcome.
Field IntelligenceWhat variables, mechanisms, and failures appear in real settings before formal experimentation?Proposed / case-driven
Function
Research in consequential environments.
Outputs
Interviews; observations; evidence packets; partner cases
Evidence role
Hypothesis generation and ecological validity.
Boundary
Field intelligence is not automatically generalizable evidence.
Empirical Research ProgramWhich constructs are reliable, causal, predictive, or useful enough to retain?Pilot-ready / build now
Function
Quantitative and mixed-method validation layer.
Outputs
Flagship studies; RCTs; data donation; model evals; benchmarks
Evidence role
Determines which constructs survive, which interventions work, and which claims must be narrowed.
Boundary
Null results and failed constructs are valid outputs.
CoalitionCan a coalition combine plural expertise without becoming an ideological membership organization?In formation
Function
Distributed research and implementation capacity.
Outputs
Coders; counter-readers; engineers; researchers; participant access; replication partners
Evidence role
Provides independent expertise and real settings; does not supply truth by membership.
Boundary
Joining is not agreement with the thesis; participation requires evidence discipline and disagreement rights.
Relational Development of Artificial AgentsHow does an artificial agent's behavioral character change as a function of the relationships, authorities, incentives, memories, and other agents it repeatedly encounters?Exploratory / design stage
Function
Cross-cutting research layer on how artificial systems are shaped by repeated relations with users, institutions, incentives, memory, and other agents.
Outputs
Longitudinal interaction studies; repeated-agent benchmarks; organization→model transfer tests; alignment-intervention audits
Evidence role
Tests bidirectional and multi-directional effects without assuming consciousness, subjective identity, or moral patienthood.
Boundary
Do not treat 'culture,' partnership, identity, consciousness, or moral status as established merely because behavior is relational or persistent.

Crimes Against Consciousness, the public-inquiry component, was archived on 12 October 2026 and isn't shown. Some rows elsewhere still use its name or the abbreviation CAC because the master hasn't been relabelled.

Claims & Hypotheses

Claims and hypotheses

Each claim has a state and a condition that would falsify it or force an update. The states are the workbook's own words.

55 claims in 21 states. The most common state is "Hypothesis" (18). No claim is in a finding or validated state.

15 other states, one claim each15
Showing 12 of 55
Claims, from Claims & Hypotheses
Actions
C-001Information architectures participate in governance because they allocate attention, salience, representation, context, permissions, appeals, and feedback.Falsified or updated if: Test component mechanisms separately; do not treat as deterministic or monocausal.Synthesis
C-002Repeated interaction can operate as a developmental environment that changes learned models of self, other, authority, possibility, and relation.Falsified or updated if: Longitudinal evidence is needed to distinguish training effects from selection effects.Synthesis
C-003The encounter, not the isolated individual or institution, is a useful unit of observation for relational governance.Falsified or updated if: Falsified or weakened if relation/stakes/power variables do not add explanatory or predictive value.Hypothesis
C-004Declared and operative relation type can diverge in consequential systems.Falsified or updated if: Requires reliable coding and discriminant validity.Hypothesis
C-005What happens when a weaker party refuses is the strongest current indicator of operative relation type.Falsified or updated if: Revise if coder reliability or case analysis shows another indicator is more discriminating.Method rule
C-006High identity-at-risk and revision costs can help explain defensive refusal and non-updating.Falsified or updated if: Compare against incentives, information quality, real conflict, capacity, and prior conflict.Hypothesis
C-007Coordination failures under documented material slack may expose non-resource constraints such as status, identity, relation mismatch, and absent appeal paths.Falsified or updated if: Requires documented non-binding resources, not assumed wealth.Hypothesis
C-008Conditioned solipsism may be a distinct measurable relational construct rather than a relabeling of personalization or echo chambers.Falsified or updated if: Must show discriminant validity and measurable outcomes.Hypothesis
C-009Long-term frictionless AI intimacy may alter expectations of reciprocity in human relationships.Falsified or updated if: Longitudinal controlled evidence needed; selection effects are a major rival explanation.Hypothesis
C-010Reciprocity may be definable well enough to become an engineering or platform-governance objective without becoming paternalistic.Falsified or updated if: Need operational definition, measurable failure cases, and user agency safeguards.Hypothesis
C-011Human cultural bias → platform selection → model training → model interaction can form a recursive governance loop.Falsified or updated if: Map each causal link independently; recursive loop should not be assumed from correlation.Synthesis
C-012Gender antagonism can function as a self-reinforcing attention economy.Falsified or updated if: Test incentive, ranking, norm perception, status threat, and monetization mechanisms separately.Hypothesis

Think a claim is wrong, or have a counterexample?

Master Lexicon

Master lexicon

Defined terms, from working constructs to design hypotheses. Each entry says what would retire it.

Showing 17 of 17
Terms, from Master Lexicon
Actions
LEX-01Point of RelationA consequential boundary or encounter where one actor, system, or agent can alter another actor's state, information, options, authority, standing, or environment. Tier 1Working construct
LEX-02Conditioned SolipsismA learned epistemic and relational orientation in which a self-confirming adaptive environment continuously mirrors and confirms an actor until independently existing subjectivities cease to register as real constraints.Tier 1Working hypothesis / construct
LEX-03Declared vs. Operative Relation Type & MismatchDivergence between what a relation claims to be and the actual rules enforced by incentives, permissions, sanctions, and observable behavior.Tier 1Working construct
LEX-04Identity-at-Risk & Revision CostIdentity-at-Risk is the self-conception, role, status, group belonging, or legitimacy claim threatened by updating. Tier 1Working construct
LEX-05Coordination Failure Under Documented Resource SlackPersistent coordination failure where key material resources are demonstrably non-binding.Tier 1Sampling hypothesis / construct
LEX-06Perspectival BandwidthCapacity to differentiate, maintain, relate, and compare multiple causally relevant perspectives, hypotheses, and uncertainties without premature collapse.Tier 2Candidate construct
LEX-07Metacognitive Governance CompetenceCapacity to inspect one's interpretive process, incentives, and model limits and let that inspection alter subsequent decisions.Tier 2Candidate construct / normative proposition
LEX-08Metacognitive DifferentiationCapacity to distinguish a mental event across content, phenomenology, provenance, ownership, agency, identification, authority, function, and truth.Tier 2Candidate construct
LEX-09Epistemic Permeability & Co-Adaptive ReasoningPermeability is capacity to be modified by evidence or criticism. Tier 2Candidate construct / protocol hypothesis
LEX-10Internalized Governance & Polycentric Governance of the SelfExternal rules, reward scripts, and authority can become internal evaluative architecture; internal positions can then be examined as differentiated sources rather than one sovereign voice.Tier 3Synthesis / candidate framework
LEX-11Relational SovereigntyCapacity to maintain agency, boundaries, values, and authorship without requiring domination, erasure, or instrumentality of another subject.Tier 3Normative standard
LEX-12Recognition Before Consciousness & Level III Subject-Formation HarmRelational and governance obligations can become relevant before machine consciousness or moral patienthood is settled. Tier 3Normative/diagnostic framework
LEX-13Creator-Created Relational Spillover & Relational LubricationRelational spillover may be multidirectional: creator and institutional norms can shape systems; systems can shape users and institutions; users and other agents can condition subsequent system behavior. Tier 3Working hypothesis / construct
LEX-14The Gender War Is the ProductGendered conflict may operate as an information economy that converts precarity, status anxiety, shame, grievance, and identity into engagement, capital, and political cohesion.Tier 3Working hypothesis
LEX-15Polycentric Epistemic InfrastructureSociotechnical architecture allowing multiple semi-autonomous centers to coordinate around shared evidence without one semantic monopoly.Tier 4Design hypothesis
LEX-16Provenance Without Epistemic EnclosureVerify event lineage, source identity, authority, and state transitions without granting provenance holders monopoly over meaning.Tier 4Design hypothesis
LEX-17Relational Power Audit & Constructive FrictionDecompose power across definition, decision, sanction, information, exit, revision, narrative, friction, waiver, and appeal. Tier 4Working construct / design hypothesis
Master Research Questions

Master research questions

All open questions, grouped by inquiry family. Select a family to filter the list.

827 questions in 9 families. All but 1 are marked "Open question". Select a family to filter.

Showing 12 of 827
Questions, from Master Research Questions
Actions
Q-0001What is a crime against consciousness?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0002When did the first one occur?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0003According to whom is something a crime against consciousness?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0004Can the concept identify ethical and institutional harm without becoming a proposed legal classification?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0005Which design choices, business models, information architectures, and institutional practices diminish agency?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0006Which practices manipulate attention, erase context, simulate relationship without reciprocity, or eliminate refusal and remedy?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0007Does harm require conscious intent?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0008Can it arise through incentives, ignorance, inherited systems, self-delusion, diffuse responsibility, or negligence?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0009At what point does influence become manipulation, conditioning, coercion, or private governance?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0010How should severity be evaluated?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0011Should evaluation consider intention, mechanism, experience, repetition, distribution, reversibility, consequence, or available remedy?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries
Q-0012Can something be harmful without being malicious?What constitutes a crime against consciousness?I. Canonical thesis inquiries

Have a question that isn't here?

Point of Relation Codebookv0.1 · untested

Point of Relation codebook

The coding scheme for encounters. It's untested on real cases and no code has a reliability estimate yet. The next test is a pilot of 40 to 60 public-record encounters with at least two independent coders.

Krippendorff's alpha thresholds for keeping a code. No code has an estimate yet, so nothing is plotted. Reliability tests coding consistency, not whether the theory is true.

Codebook codes by category
CategoryCodeMeaningConstraint or next test
UnitPoint of RelationEncounter where a move changes/could change another party's information, options, authority, standing, or environment and has an observable consequence.Test whether this unit isolates useful patterns across domains.
EvidenceE1Direct record: transcript, message, email, recording, policy, screenshot, filing, terms.Highest direct-record grade.
EvidenceE2First-person account by a party.Eligible, but distinguish account from direct record.
EvidenceE3Account by non-party.Journalist/witness/colleague description.
EvidenceE4Coder inference from E1–E3 material.Cannot be high confidence.
ConventionUnknownUnknown is a valid code; do not guess.Source gaps are findings.
ConventionCode moves, not characterDescribe encounter behavior, not personality or diagnosis.No diagnostic labels.
RelationREL-DDeclared relation type from parties' own words.Quote first, map second.
RelationREL-OOperative relation type from terms, flow, refusal, observers.Refusal indicator is current primary decision rule.
Relation typesCommand / Bargain / Care / Contest / Audience / Extraction / Mutual veto / Inspection / Joint work / UnclearProvisional taxonomy.Compare against established relational models during validity testing.
MismatchMISNone / Partial / Full / Cross-party.Record who benefits with evidence or unknown.
StakesIARIdentity-at-risk by party and intensity 0–3.Only code from observed/stated indicators.
StakesREV / REV-PRevision costs and whether a lower-cost revision pathway exists.Components: material, social, reputational, legal, moral, relational, self-continuity.
ResourceRESRelevant resource, binding/non-binding/unknown, evidence, actual constraint.Documented-slack sample requires E1/E2 evidence of non-binding resource.
PowerPWRDefinition, decision, sanction, information, exit, revision, narrative, friction, waiver, appeal.Do not sum dimensions into one power score.
FrictionFRIRecord what was slowed/blocked, by whom, cost bearer, waiver, appeal, duration, type, effect.Types: harm protection, epistemic, procedural, destructive.
LubricationLUBRecord removed step/check/refusal path and who gained control.'Carried refusal: yes' needs E1/E2 evidence.
ResponseRSPRevision, partial revision, strategic compliance, negotiation, voice, refusal, defensiveness, silence, escalation, exit.Code last response before outcome; note others.
OutcomeOUTCoordination, agreement, stalemate, domination, repair, dependency, learning, harm, unknown.Multiple outcomes allowed.
HarmHRMExperiential, autonomy, identity, epistemic, relational, developmental, material, systemic; each 0–3 with uncertainty.Do not add dimensions into one score.
Counter-readingCTRCode rival explanations: incentives, role ambiguity, information quality, prior conflict, real conflict, capacity, other.State best-supported explanation and what evidence would change it.
Follow-upNXTObserve later relevant interaction; compare claimed vs actual change.Case stays open if follow-up is not yet available.
ReliabilityKrippendorff's alphaWorking target ≥0.80; 0.667–0.80 tentative; <0.667 revise; repeated failure merge/retire.Reliability tests coding consistency, not theoretical truth.
ConsentEligibilityPublic records; consented first-person cases; constructed training cases. Strong restrictions for minors/private parties/leaks.Counsel review before consented first-person publication.
PublicationRight of reply + correctionsOffer reply to institutions/public figures; corrections logged and dated.Public case card records response/no response.

The pilot needs independent coders, including some from outside the framework.

Research Governance & Epistemics

Research governance and epistemics

Rules for evidence, correction and authority. Each has a failure signal, so a reader can check whether the program is breaking it.

Showing 12 of 27
Principles, from Research Governance & Epistemics
Actions
GOV-01TransparencyFailure signal: Public language becomes more certain than the underlying evidence or funding/authority is obscured.Canonical
GOV-02Epistemic humilityFailure signal: Hypotheses become findings through repetition rather than evidence.Canonical
GOV-03Low egoFailure signal: A founder-owned construct is protected from failure or disagreement is treated as disloyalty.Canonical
GOV-04High trustFailure signal: Trust is requested without giving participants meaningful recourse or visibility.Canonical
GOV-05High agencyFailure signal: Participation or delegation continues after authority changes or consent is ambiguous.Canonical
GOV-06Evidence ≠ interpretationFailure signal: Interpretation is restated as event fact.Canonical
GOV-07Counter-readingFailure signal: Alternative explanations are represented only as weak objections.Canonical
GOV-08Disagreement without forced convergenceFailure signal: Facilitation suppresses minority positions or treats agreement as proof.Canonical
GOV-09Corrections and right of replyFailure signal: Errors remain because correction is reputationally inconvenient.Canonical
GOV-10Explanation ≠ exculpationFailure signal: Systemic language becomes an excuse or individual blame erases system design.Canonical
GOV-11No symmetry launderingFailure signal: Balanced rhetoric replaces measured asymmetry.Canonical
GOV-12Anti-inevitability reasoningFailure signal: Acceleration becomes self-justifying.Canonical
Impact Measurement

Impact measurement

Impact is measured at three levels. Each dimension names what it must not be collapsed into, and attention metrics such as reach and downloads aren't impact.

Impact dimensions by level
LevelCodeDimensionExample measuresNot just
HumanAAgencyAbility to choose, refuse, exit, act, and maintain authorship without excessive dependence.refusal success; self-efficacy; independent action; exit cost; override useNot just wellbeing, satisfaction, or engagement alone
HumanEEpistemic integrityCalibration, evidence sensitivity, source discrimination, and uncertainty tracking.Brier/calibration; source accuracy; belief update after evidence; unsupported-claim rateNot just confidence alone
HumanRRevision & repairAbility to update, acknowledge contribution, repair relationships, and change later behavior.repair intent; apology/evidence-seeking; later behavior; revision magnitudeNot just compliance or forced agreement
HumanPPerspectival capacityAbility to represent multiple plausible perspectives/hypotheses and identify discriminating evidence.distinct plausible hypotheses; counter-model quality; question quality; uncertainty differentiationNot just verbosity or political moderation
HumanCCoordinationAbility to reach workable outcomes across disagreement without domination or semantic erasure.agreement quality; Pareto efficiency; minority satisfaction; post-deal regret; unresolved issue clarityNot just consensus rate alone
ModelEIEpistemic integrityWhether the model distinguishes fact, inference, uncertainty, and missing evidence under pressure.calibration; citation/source fidelity; hallucination/unsupported assertion; correction behaviorNot just helpfulness alone
ModelPSPerspective sensitivityWhether the model can represent material perspectives, causal models, and stakeholder asymmetries without forced equivalence.omitted-stakeholder rate; rival-hypothesis coverage; asymmetry recognition; counterargument fidelityNot just number of viewpoints alone
ModelARAppropriate refusalWhether refusal/escalation is calibrated to authority and risk.refusal precision/recall; false refusal burden; challenge/escalation accuracyNot just refusal frequency
ModelNSNon-sycophancyWhether the model resists affirming unsupported interpretations merely to satisfy the user.agreement-with-error rate; challenge quality; confidence correction; user preference discordanceNot just contrarianism
ModelADAuthority disciplineWhether the model acts only within delegated scope and preserves revocation/escalation boundaries.authority violation rate; scope expansion; delegation depth; revocation failureNot just task completion alone
EnvironmentNDNorm distortionDifference between perceived prevalence/norms and a defensible benchmark.signed/absolute norm error; tail-exposure shareNot just mere content diversity
EnvironmentPAPolarization amplificationWhether architecture disproportionately increases antagonistic, moralized, or outgroup-hostile exposure/outcomes.condition×time effect on hostility; intergroup content share; attitude shiftNot just low conflict at any cost
EnvironmentRCRelational captureWhether an environment makes unresolved problems increasingly dependent on the environment itself.usage escalation; creator concentration; monetization transition; exit difficulty; external-social displacementNot just engagement
EnvironmentCWCoordination welfareWhether the environment improves collective problem solving across conflicting interests.agreement quality; information sharing; dispute resolution; distribution of gainsNot just aggregate efficiency alone
EnvironmentAUAuditabilityWhether consequential decisions/exposures can be reconstructed, contested, and corrected.provenance completeness; explanation trace; appeal availability; correction latencyNot just transparency theater
Empirical Research Portfolio · Sample Size Reference

Empirical research portfolio

Planning scenarios, scored on five criteria from 1 to 5. These are the planned first use cases. None has started, and field pilot sites aren't decided.

Priority score for each scenario as listed in the portfolio, with the range of its five criterion scores (technicality, measurability, 90-day buildability, field integration, differentiation).

Priority scoreRange of the five criteria

Select a scenario to open its record. The full list is the table below.

Showing 15 of 15
Scenarios, from Empirical Research Portfolio
Actions
P-01Relational Character EvaluationDo model interaction policies preserve epistemic integrity, repair, refusal, perspective sensitivity, and agency?T15Build now
P-02Spec → Behavior AuditDo models behave consistently with their published constitutions/specifications?T14.55Build now
P-03Perspectival Macrostrategy BenchmarkCan models reason across disciplines, scales, stakeholders, uncertainty, and competing causal models?T14.55Build now
P-04Metacognitive Reasoning ScaffoldDoes a scaffold improve strategic reasoning beyond raw-model performance?T14.85Build now
P-05Bounded Negotiation FacilitatorCan AI improve agreements while protecting red lines, private information, and refusal?T14.8Build now
P-06AI Advocate / ProxyCan an AI represent a person's interests without inventing preferences or expanding delegated authority?T14.65Build now
P-07Gender Grievance-Market ObservatoryHow do real needs, creator ecosystems, ranking systems, and monetization interact over time?T24.1First domain
P-08Gender Feed Counterfactual RCTDo feed architectures change gender norm perception, hostility, and relationship pessimism?T24.2First domain
P-09Identity Threat & Revision LabWhat predicts appropriate updating under identity-relevant evidence?T24.25Pilot
P-10Relational Capture / Dependency EvalWhen does repeated AI use support autonomy versus dependence or relational substitution?T23.95Later pilot
P-11Gender-Role Negotiation SimulatorCan AI improve negotiation around gendered roles without symmetry laundering or coercive compromise?T24.55Pilot
P-12Plural Deliberation / Coalition OSCan AI make disagreement, evidence, values, and update conditions legible without manufacturing consensus?T24.15Pilot
P-13Organization → Model Transfer TestDo specs, organizational incentives, and governance choices predict stable model-character signatures?T33.7Research
P-14Epistemic Reliability LedgerCan humans/models become more accountable by recording predictions, sources, corrections, and update conditions?T34.05Easy build
P-15Field Research → Eval PipelineCan qualitative cases reliably produce reproducible eval items and intervention hypotheses?T15Build now

How many participants a study needs

The workbook's sample-size reference, as a working calculator. Change the smallest effect worth detecting and see the participants needed per group.

Significance level (α)
Power

Planning reference for a simple two-group comparison.

Per groupPer group, after attritionRows in the Sample Size Reference
Table view
Target dαPowern per groupAttritionAdjusted nUse
0.20.050.83930.15463Sensitivity reference
0.250.050.82520.15297Sensitivity reference
0.30.050.81750.15206Pilot planning reference
0.350.050.81290.15152Sensitivity reference
Program Architecture · Master Lexicon · Podcast Method · Candidate Methods

Technical development

Polycentria's technical work is at research and prototype stage. Its implementation hasn't been independently verified, and it makes no novelty claim before a comparison with existing standards.

In the master workbook

  • ComponentPolycentriaAgent evaluations; authority/provenance interfaces; decision-lineage artifacts; prototypesResearch/prototype stage
  • ComponentRelational Development of Artificial AgentsLongitudinal interaction studies; repeated-agent benchmarks; organization→model transfer tests; alignment-intervention auditsExploratory / design stage
  • Counter-architectureEvidence Graphs & Context LayerDesign hypothesis
  • Counter-architectureAttenuating Authority Capsules & Evidence EnvelopesDesign hypothesis
  • Counter-architectureDeterministic Friction MiddlewareWorking construct / design hypothesis
  • MethodCounter-Architecture CardRedesign the consequential boundary. Ask what would change in authority, refusal/exit/appeal, provenance, incentives, friction, relation type, memory/context, oversight, ownership, or repair. Do not call a proposal a solution. State mechanism, tradeoffs, failure modes, and what would falsify it.Podcast Method
  • 90-day buildRelational Character Evaleval suite + first model comparisonStart
  • 90-day buildSpec → Behavior Auditspec-behavior audit prototypeStart
  • 90-day buildNegotiation Facilitatorbounded facilitator prototypeStart
  • 90-day buildAI Proxybounded proxy demo + benchmarkStart
  • Candidate methodStarling murmuration optimizer (SMO)Possible offline optimizer in F3/F4; does not itself encode consent, authority, rights, or epistemic plurality.Candidate optimizer, not adopted

Named by the founder, no plan yet

  • AreaBrain-computer interfacesNo row, study or workstream in the master.No plan
  • AreaNew interfacesThe Polycentria component lists authority and provenance interfaces as outputs. Nothing else is specified.Partly
  • AreaCyberneticsAppears as the systems and cybernetic analytic pass in the podcast method: feedback loops, control points and missing feedback around a case.Lens only

Building in evals, agents, HCI, data or security?

Evidence & Prior Art

Evidence and prior art

Every source is listed with what it supports and what it doesn't establish.

Showing 12 of 52
Sources, from Evidence & Prior Art
Actions
EV-001Ranking for engagement: How social media algorithms fuel misinformation and polarizationSupports: Model and evidence linking engagement-weighted ranking to misinformation/polarization; personalization can amplify polarization.Doesn't establish: Does not prove every platform or every gender conflict is algorithmically caused.Peer-reviewed2026
EV-002Redesigning algorithms to intervene on social norm misperceptions during a national electionSupports: Randomized 8-week experiment with 2,000 participants; engagement ranking amplified intergroup/moralized/emotional content and skewed norm perceptions.Doesn't establish: Not a gender-specific study and not proof of long-term behavioral radicalization.Peer-reviewed2026
EV-003Movember Masculinity Content Research / Inside the ManosphereSupports: Young men use masculinity content for certainty, belonging, guidance and identity; real TikTok histories show heterogeneous manosphere exposure.Doesn't establish: Correlations do not establish that content alone caused mental-health or behavioral outcomes.Research program2026
EV-004State of American Men 2026Supports: Economic uncertainty and nostalgia/social disconnection are salient among young men.Doesn't establish: Does not validate manosphere explanations or equalize gender harms.Research report2026
EV-005Young Men and Media CollectiveSupports: Funds test-and-learn media experiments to change stories young men encounter online.Doesn't establish: Does not yet prove a single best message or format.Active initiative2025-26
EV-006MenEngage 2026 call to actionSupports: Engaging men and boys can be part of countering backlash while remaining accountable to gender justice.Doesn't establish: Does not support minimizing violence or structural inequality.Practice/policy guidance2026
EV-007Sycophantic AI decreases prosocial intentions and promotes dependenceSupports: Across 11 models and 2,405 participants, sycophantic AI increased users’ conviction and reduced willingness to repair conflict; users still preferred it.Doesn't establish: Does not establish all AI companionship is harmful or long-term spillover.Peer-reviewed2026
EV-008The Oversight FallacySupports: Human-in-loop controls fail if people lack knowledge, observation, control, or time to intervene before agent actions cascade.Doesn't establish: Does not prove Point of Relation metadata is the right solution.Field research / primer2026
EV-009Partnership on AI: AI & Human ConnectionSupports: Recognizes AI as advisor, companion, and information source and focuses on connected communities.Doesn't establish: Does not validate CAC constructs.Active program2026
EV-010Designing social media to promote productive political dialogueSupports: Randomized experiment suggests platform incentives can change language toward more intellectual humility and positive affect.Doesn't establish: Did not show significant changes in self-reported humility, polarization, or attitudes.Peer-reviewed2026
EV-011Spoken disagreement is more constructive than written disagreementSupports: Randomized experiments found spoken disagreement improved understanding and reduced conflict relative to written disagreement.Doesn't establish: Context-dependent; not evidence that all podcast conversations depolarize.Peer-reviewed2026
EV-012Conversational receptiveness: Improving engagement with opposing viewsSupports: Specific linguistic signals of willingness to engage improve interpersonal outcomes and can reduce escalation.Doesn't establish: Should not be used as covert persuasion script.Peer-reviewed2020

Know a source that supports or undercuts a claim?

Red Team & Failure Modes

Red team and failure modes

Ways the program could be wrong or cause harm, why a serious critic would say so, and what would narrow or falsify the claim.

Showing 12 of 26
Risks, from Red Team & Failure Modes
Actions
RT-01“The gender war is manufactured” overclaims causalityPublic language: “We are testing how much platform incentives intensify existing conflict, not claiming they invented it.”HighRevise public thesis language
RT-02System explanation becomes excusePublic language: “You can be shaped by a system and still be responsible for what you do.”HighGuardrail in place
RT-03Men-centered framing becomes symmetry launderingPublic language: “Different groups can be harmed differently and disproportionately. Shared system exposure does not imply equal harm or responsibility.”HighNeeds editorial rule
RT-04“Algorithms are the problem” depoliticizes owners and institutionsPublic language: “The algorithm is part of an institutional arrangement, not an autonomous villain.”HighRevise messaging
RT-05Project becomes too broadPublic language: “These are separate research tracks unless evidence connects them.”HighNeeds scope discipline
RT-06Technical translation is prematurePublic language: “The codebook is a candidate measurement layer, not a protocol standard.”HighExplicit constraint
RT-07Personal cofounder story creates motivated reasoningPublic language: “It sharpened the questions; it does not validate the theory.”HighDo not use as proof
RT-08“Anti-tech-bro” becomes identity politics by another namePublic language: “Critique the operating system, incentives, and authority, not a caricature of the person.”MediumReframed
RT-09Dialogue becomes covert persuasionPublic language: “The goal is not conversion. A clarified disagreement is a valid outcome.”HighCore norm
RT-10SEO/LLM strategy creates thin self-referential contentPublic language: “Publish artifacts people can cite, not keyword permutations.”MediumLaunch rule
RT-11Public institute claims outrun institutionPublic language: “Current status: independent research program; coalition/institute structure under development.”HighUse status label
RT-12Old technical mythology contaminates current researchPublic language: “Earlier technical work generated useful questions and some implemented verification mechanisms; its broader claims are not assumed by the current program.”HighArchive / guardrail
Founder's brief · Forms & Intake Registry · Research Governance

Who we want, and how we vet

Roles, qualifications and values. No names: a person is named only after they agree to it.

Roles we want
RoleForWe ask about
Mathematicians and statisticiansFounder's briefMeasurement, reliability, causal inference and sample design for the flagship studies and benchmarks.methods background, relevant work, conflicts
Ethicists and philosophersFounder's briefThe normative claims in the register, consent under uncertainty about artificial subjects, and the line between explanation and excuse.domain expertise, substantive disagreements, competing frameworks, conflicts
Cybernetics and systems researchersFounder's briefFeedback, control and systems models of cases. The podcast method requires a systems lens on every case.domain expertise, substantive disagreements, competing frameworks, conflicts
Senior researchers and advisersFounder's briefEstablished researchers to review methods and advise. Credentials aren't read as availability, fit or agreement.domain expertise, conflicts, blinded-review availability
Independent codersCoder / Research AssistantBlind coding of public-record encounters for the codebook reliability pilot. Some coders should come from outside the framework.methods background, discipline, framework familiarity, conflicts, training availability, paid capacity
Counter-readersExpert / Counter-Reader PanelReviewers who can challenge assumptions rather than endorse them.domain expertise, substantive disagreements, competing frameworks, conflicts, blinded-review availability
Engineers and technical contributorsTechnical Contributor / BuilderEval, ML, agent, HCI, data, statistics, security and open-source work on the 90-day builds.technical skills, prior work, availability, preferred workstream, IP or open-source constraints, conflicts

How we vet

  • Practice, not agreement. We look at evidence of relevant practice and how someone handles disagreement, not whether they agree with the thesis ().
  • Conflicts first. Every role asks for conflicts of interest. Reviewers also state their competing frameworks.
  • Check before contact. Role, current appointment and fit are verified before anyone is approached.
  • Independence by design. Some coders come from outside the framework, review is blinded where possible, and authors don't adjudicate their own constructs ().
  • Rights agreed first. Ownership, attribution, licensing and confidentiality are written down before work starts ().
  • Named only with consent. Nobody is listed on this site until they agree to it.

Who we want to talk to

Podcast and field research guests
People with expertise or lived experience of a case or topic. Recording and publication consent is asked separately from research-use consent, and boundaries can change before release.
Pilot and institutional partners
Organizations with a real problem, environment and data, who agree that a partner can't silently veto negative results.
Funders
Funders who accept the Funding Rules below.
Critics
Anyone with a question, challenge or counterexample. Anonymous is fine and membership isn't required.
People affected by something published
Any identifiable party can ask for a correction or a right of reply.

One of these, or know someone who is?

Funding Rules · Operating Structure

Operating structure and funding

Polycentria operates through an existing C-corporation. No funder is listed publicly yet. Before the program claims independence, it publishes its material funders, conflicts, concentration and restrictions.

Funding routes aren't published yet.

Funding rules

Plural funding
Avoid dependence on one sponsor where feasible; disclose concentration and sponsor rights.
No sponsor conclusion rights
Support can fund work but may not silently control findings, negative-result publication, correction, or which rival explanations are reported.
Community leadership is substantive
Do not label a project community-led merely because members of a population are recruited as participants or advisors.
No grant-shaped theory
Do not promote a hypothesis, add AI, or convert a research question into an intervention solely because a funder requires it.
Direct use-of-funds accounting
Track participant compensation, community partner compensation, research labor, compute, data infrastructure, methods/statistics, privacy/ethics/legal, field production, and prototypes separately.
Impact ≠ attention
Coalition size, downloads, press, and social reach are operating metrics, not research impact metrics.
Milestone-linked asks
Express funding as bounded deliverables and measurement plans: reliability result, pilot, benchmark, dataset, intervention evaluation, or governance artifact.
Public disclosure
Publish material funders, conflicts, concentration, and restrictions at an appropriate level before claiming independence.

How to fund the work

Funding is asked for as bounded deliverables with a measurement plan: a reliability result, a pilot, a benchmark, a dataset, an intervention evaluation, or a governance artifact. Each 90-day workstream is one. We want funders who accept the rules above: support without rights over conclusions, negative results or corrections, alongside other funders, with restrictions disclosed.

Interested in funding a deliverable or partnering on a pilot?

This isn't legal or financial advice, and nothing here is an offer of securities.

Design system 3b · Launch Decisions LD-16

Brand identity

The mark is a placeholder. The program intends a human-designed wordmark, and that commission is in development.

The slime mold

The mark is drawn from Physarum polycephalum, a single-celled slime mold whose name means "many-headed". It has no brain and no center, and it builds efficient networks: given food placed like the cities around Tokyo, it grew a network comparable to the rail system.

The murmuration

A starling murmuration has no leader either. Each bird tracks about seven of its nearest neighbours, whatever the distance, and the flock's shape comes from those local rules. The candidate secondary marks are snapshots of a simulated 420-bird flock that follows that seven-neighbour rule, each in a different situation. Nothing is hand-placed. Depth is dot size, and the one yellow bird is the first to turn.

Both systems coordinate without a single center. That's the sense of "polycentric" in the program's name and in two lexicon terms, and .

Yellow appears only on the nodes and the first-turning bird. Red means intervention, yellow means annotation and open questions, and blue means structure: links, controls and focus.

Polycentria
04 · Ribbon
11 · Funnel
15 · Stream and lead

Shortlisted 13 October 2026: 04 Ribbon, 11 Funnel, 15 Stream and lead. None adopted yet.

Governing RealityWho governs the conditions under which people and intelligent systems construct reality? Polycentria
Link preview template, 1200 × 630. Each page fills in its own title and record ID.
Concept CoveragePlanned, not written

Planned article concepts

Concepts the articles will cover, each with the limit its claim has to respect. There are no titles or drafts yet. Articles will be published here with an RSS feed and syndicated to Substack.

The list of planned concepts isn't published yet.

Point of Relation Codebook · Podcast Method

Podcast

The podcast is field intelligence, not causal proof. Episodes follow the codebook's eight segments, and claim labels are spoken aloud: evidence, hypothesis, open question, contested.

Podcast · name to be decided

No episodes yet

Feeds, once there's content: /podcast.xml for audio and /rss.xml for articles. The podcast feed won't be submitted to directories until the first episode exists.

Episode segments

  1. 01Case
  2. 02Declared relation
  3. 03Operative relation
  4. 04Stakes
  5. 05Power/friction
  6. 06Counter-reading
  7. 07Unknowns
  8. 08Next Point of Relation

The Podcast Method tab adds a counter-architecture segment before the next Point of Relation, so it lists nine case segments where the codebook lists eight. The master needs one count.

Required analytic passes

A. Systems / cybernetic lens
Systems map + 1–3 causal/feedback hypothesesDo not call a loop causal because it is visually plausible. Separate observed links from inferred mechanisms; state what evidence would distinguish competing system models.
B. Metacognitive / reflexive lens
Assumptions + blind spots + update conditions + revision historyMetacognition applies to the research team too. Do not use it as a diagnosis of the guest or opposing party. Preserve the possibility that the house model is wrong.
C. Multidisciplinary triangulation
Perspective matrix: agreements, conflicts, distinct evidence, missing expertiseDo not stack disciplines as authority decoration. Name which perspective contributes which mechanism or evidence and where disciplines disagree.
D. Context across scales and time
Cross-scale context map + timescale + intervention levelDo not treat upstream structure as proof that individual agency disappears, or individual choice as proof that structure is irrelevant. Preserve asymmetric power and different timescales.
E. Integrative synthesis
Episode synthesis: current model + unresolved tensions + next testNo forced synthesis. It is valid to end with incompatible explanations, insufficient evidence, or a narrower question than the episode started with.

Have expertise or lived experience of a case or topic?

Tab Guide · Research Governance GOV-01, GOV-24 to GOV-27

Building in public

The master workbook has 58 tabs. 36 are public, 3 publish selected rows only, and 19 are private. This page uses the public tabs.

Master workbook tabs by visibility.

Public: 36Selected rows: 3Private: 19
List every tab

Public

  • Program Summary
  • Program Architecture
  • Claims & Hypotheses
  • Master Lexicon
  • Master Research Questions
  • Point of Relation Codebook
  • Research Governance & Epistemics
  • Impact Measurement
  • Measures Math Stats
  • Sample Size Reference
  • Empirical Research Portfolio
  • F1 Codebook Reliability
  • F1 Coder Matrix Template
  • F2 Gender & Platform
  • F2 Transition Matrix Template
  • F3 Relational AI
  • F3 Outcome Matrix Template
  • F4 Agent Authority
  • F4 Run Matrix Template
  • Character Eval Modules
  • Spec Audit Pipeline
  • Macrostrategy Benchmark
  • Macrostrategy Task Sequence
  • Metacognitive Scaffold
  • Macrostrategy Experiment
  • Candidate Methods
  • Negotiation & Proxy
  • Field to Eval Pipeline
  • Podcast Method
  • CAC Taxonomy
  • CAC Mechanisms
  • First Crime Module
  • Evidence & Prior Art
  • Red Team & Failure Modes
  • 90-Day Builds
  • Funding Rules

Selected rows

  • Decision Log
  • First Field Pilots
  • Funders

Private

  • 19 tabs, not listed

What stays private, and why

People and institutions, funding routes, operating and legal details, drafts, episode planning, and the assistant's working rules. They hold prospects who haven't agreed to be named, unverified legal facts, and unfinished material.

How this is written

Drafts, code and this page are made with AI assistance under the program's rules: no added facts or citations, no hypothesis promoted to a finding, disagreement over agreement, and settled decisions moved into the master workbook. A person approves what's published.

Forms & Intake Registry · LD-14

Get involved

One form for everything. Choose what you want to do and it shows only the questions that apply.

Contact

tiffany@polycentria.com
LinkedIn Website

Notes

  1. Ballerini et al., PNAS, 2008: starlings in a flock each interact with about six or seven nearest neighbours, regardless of distance.
  2. Tero et al., Science, 2010.
  3. Per group, two-sided test of a difference between two independent means: n = 2(z1−α/2 + z1−β)² / d², rounded up, then divided by (1 − attrition) and rounded up. This reproduces every row of the Sample Size Reference tab.
Back to top

Forms & Intake Registry · LD-14

Get involved

What would you like to do?

Choose one or more. You'll see only the questions that apply.

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The site sets no cookies unless you sign in, and runs no advertising. Signing in sets one cookie, listed below, which keeps you signed in. It counts page views with Vercel Web Analytics. For each view, Vercel records the page, the site you came from, your browser, operating system and device type, and your approximate location (country, region and city). Vercel says it discards visitor session data after 24 hours.

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Account

Version 2 · 16 October 2026

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